Keynote Index Fund

A few months ago I was thinking about Apple’s rise in value after the iPhone and how Steve Jobs does a great keynote every year, and naturally I thought “I wonder if there’s a way to make money off quick investments around the keynotes?” Then I thought “What if you did this every year, for just a day or two of investment?”

I ran the numbers and here they are, on this new 1-page website: Keynote Index Fund

5 Comments

  • This is a neat idea to look into Matt. It would be beneficial to know how the NASDAQ and S & P 500 performed on these days as well. It’s possible the entire sector is up or down those days, or maybe AAPL out/underperformed the market that day because/in spite of the announcements?

  • What about a similar analysis off their financial statements? I bet you can get some useful information from that.

  • Wow, I can’t believe how popular this thing is. Digg, Waxy, Kottke, Gizmodo, etc. Nice work, Matt, pretty soon you’re gonna be some kind of internet celebrity!

  • APL may have had trouble penetrating $200 these past 3 days, but I’m ready for big gain as we approach Macworld on Jan 15.
    To take advantage of the Steve Jobs Keynote Effect, you should have bought AAPL yesterday on Jan 2 — 9 days before Steve’s address. Here are the gains for the past 7 years, assuming you bought on the close 9 days before, then exited (A) on the close of the day after, or (B) on the day of the Keynote, or (C) on the day before:
    A B C
    7 YR AVG: 9.6% 8.8% 7.7%
    2007: 18.0% 12.6% 4.0%
    2006: 13.0% 8.9% 2.5%
    2005: 1.6% 0.2% 7.0%
    2004: 13.8% 11.3% 11.7%
    2003: 0.4% 2.6% 2.9%
    2002: 7.7% 9.1% 12.9%
    2001: 12.7% 17.2% 12.8%
    Strategy C gives up some expected return in exchange for the lowest variance. I’ll wait and see the build up to MacWorld before deciding whether I’ll leave my position on till the day after, or pull it sooner. If you wish, I can send you the spreadsheet.

  • Wouldn’t capital-gains taxes hit you pretty hard?

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